A charity operating in the North West of England decided to make emergency health care more effective using a predictive simulation model. North West Air Ambulance (NWAA) needed to compare the potential performance of a rescue helicopter and an ambulance in the time of operating in the dark. Lancaster University Management School conducted the research. 

In the winter, it’s much more difficult to transport hurt or sick people than during the summer. A short day influences the emergency vehicle selection, which the speed of patient transportation to hospital depends on. NWAA has three helicopters and three cars with which they take care of more than 2 000 cases every year.

The researchers from Lancaster University used the technology of process simulation WITNESS for emergency healthcare simulation. For calculation of the missions number that could be expected by NWAA during dark periods, they chose the data from North West Ambulance Service. The predictive simulation model of the current operational system NWAA was then reconstructed and verified using the data of the Helicopter Emergency Medical Service.

NWAA workers were included in the whole modeling process, from the creation of conceptual models to generating experimental scenarios. And the result? The investigation showed the number of incidents where NWAA could be included if they invested in technical equipment extension – in terms of machines that are able to transport patients at night.

The experiment was interrupted due to the change in demand of services provided by NWAA caused by the global pandemic. The university is looking to continue cooperating with NWAA and analyze the results of operational decisions, including optimal localization of an ambulance, though.

“We hope that creating a predictive simulation model will help NWAA to react to crisis situations. And we thank Lanner that it enabled us to use WITNESS during the whole project,” said Lucy Morgan from Lancaster University Management School.