Demand forecasting in the dairy industry. PREWIT pomáhá dělat správná rozhodnutí
According to Petr Jalůvka, Managing Director of DYNAMIC FUTURE, PREWIT is more philosophy than software: “Its recent implementation in Holland confirms this. It has proven to be such a useful and supportive decision-making tool for planning staff that the company is considering introducing it across all Food divisions.”
What PREWIT can do
The sophisticated tool developed by the DYNAMIC FUTURE team to support planning and decision-making in manufacturing and business processes provides accurate demand forecasts based on analysis of historical data and current trends. PREWIT (PREdiction WIzard Tool) is designed to integrate easily with other systems, in Hollandia’s case with SAP and HIS (Hollandia Information System). This integration ensures seamless communication and data exchange between different platforms.
How it was in Holland
The implementation of PREWIT started in Holland at the beginning of 2023. The whole process required several steps and adjustments:
- Logistics audit: The first step was the implementation of a logistics audit, which took place in mid-2022. The audit assessed the current planning processes, identified problems and proposed possible solutions to improve efficiency.
- Implementation proposal: based on the results of the logistics audit, a proposal for the implementation of PREWIT was developed. This proposal included the specific steps and adjustments needed to integrate PREWIT with Hollandia’s existing systems.
- Integration and system modifications: during the implementation of PREWIT, modifications had to be made to the Hollandia information system and integration with SAP. It was necessary to ensure smooth communication between these systems, which involved the introduction of transmission bridges and other technical solutions.
- Process adjustments: there have also been adjustments to existing planning processes to make them compatible with the new tool. This included changes in data entry, communication between departments and evaluation of results.
- Technical adjustments: several technical adjustments were made to the Hollandia and SAP information systems. These modifications included the implementation of modules for event evaluation and demand forecasting, which enabled better planning and decision-making.
- Employee training:Employees have been trained to use the tool effectively.
Benefits and advantages of PREWIT
The implementation of PREWIT has brought Hollandia major improvements in the planning area. With advanced algorithms and historical data analysis, planners can better predict demand and optimize production. PREWIT allows you to spread the predictions on a daily basis over a period of up to four months, which greatly facilitates production planning and logistics. This tool also allows for better coordination between different departments.
One of the main benefits was the reduction in the time required to prepare the predictions. Previously, planners had to spend hours doing manual calculations and analysis to prepare demand forecasts. With the implementation of PREWIT, these processes have been greatly automated. Employees responsible for production planning can now quickly verify and adjust accurate forecasts and spend more time on strategic tasks such as optimising production or dealing with non-standard market situations.
Thanks to PREWIT, inventories of both finished products and raw materials have been significantly optimised. Demand forecasts are also more accurate. This enables Hollandia to better respond to changes in demand and minimise order backlogs. Planners identify potential problems in advance and take action to address them. This includes better production planning, inventory optimization and more efficient use of raw materials. The result is a higher level of customer satisfaction and a reduction in losses caused by unsold products. And if customer requirements change during the event, they can immediately adjust predictions and inform production of the necessary changes.
Challenges and problems associated with demand forecasting in the dairy industry
The dairy industry faces many specific challenges that complicate demand forecasting and production planning. The main problems include:
- Seasonality of production: the quantity and quality of milk varies by season, which affects the availability of raw materials for dairy production. For example, milk production is higher in the summer, while it decreases in the winter.
- Short shelf life of products: this factor places high demands on the accuracy of demand forecasts, as any mismatch between supply and demand can lead to large losses.
- Variability of demand: demand for dairy products depends on many factors, including seasonal trends, marketing promotions and changes in customer preferences. This variability makes accurate demand forecasting difficult and requires planners to constantly monitor the market and adjust their strategies. Marketing promotions and discounts can significantly increase demand for certain products, which must be taken into account in production planning.
- Complexity of inventory management: inventory management is particularly complex in the dairy industry due to the short shelf life of products and the variability of demand. Planners need to ensure that they have enough stock to meet demand without the risk of products going unsold and out of date.
“If information support is built correctly, many operational activities can run automatically. And that allows people to focus on more important tasks. By using PREWIT, you can free up time spent on routine issues and focus your efforts on solving customer behavioural problems,” concludes Jan Šlajer, Managing Director of DYNAMIC FUTURE.
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